Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from across the border, a capability afforded by current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
