A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has masked the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two essays that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
